The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas is seeing a smaller dollar surplus for the economy than it previously projected, taking on a “more guarded view” as pandemic uncertainties linger.

For this year, the BSP is forecasting a balance of payments (BOP) surplus of $4.1 billion, markedly lower than its previous projection of a $7.1 billion surpluses.

“While global growth forecasts have been relatively unchanged from earlier estimates, domestic growth prospects have been scaled down (i.e., 2021 Philippine GDP growth target was revised to 4-5 percent from 6-7 percent), with risks elevated in both spheres,” the central bank said.

“Two key risks have affected the latest external sector assessment. One is the rapid spread of the more transmissible COVID-19 Delta variant which led to recent spikes in infection cases and prompted enforcement of more austere mobility restrictions. Second is the supply and logistical issues in vaccine administration,” it added.

The BOP is a summary of the country’s transactions with the rest of the world during a period.

A BOP surplus happens when more dollars entered the country against those that left. A BOP deficit takes place when the reverse happens.

“By and large, in this assessment of the BOP outlook, while some upside risks remain, downside risks continue to build up underpinned by the emergence of highly transmissible variants of the COVID-19 virus,” the BSP said.

“The lingering uncertainty continues to cast a shadow on external sector prospects over the near term as the direction and duration of the pandemic remains little known,” it added.